Ouroboros Catalysts Issue #2: Aptos unlocks $177m monthly, Nearcon 2023, FTX estate sales
We released this article one week prior to Ouroboros Lifetime Access Pass holders.
Last week, we flagged 1) Solana's performance into breakpoint, 2) Marinade Finance benefiting from the sunsetting of Lido on Solana and 3) DOT unlocks.
This week, we will be examining the following catalysts:
Aptos token unlocks accelerate 5x from $32m to $177m monthly
Near historically outperforming into Nearcon and underperforming thereafter
Further FTX estate sales
None of the following is financial advice.
Catalyst #1: Aptos token unlocks accelerate from $32m -> $177m monthly
Catalyst: Aptos token unlocks are set to significantly accelerate from 12 Nov'23 onwards.
Previously, APT was unlocking at a rate of 4.5m APT monthly or $32m at the current price ($7.15). 70% of the monthly unlocks were to the community while the remaining 30% were to the foundation.
Following the acceleration, APT will unlock at a rate of 24.8m APT or $177m monthly. Core contributors will vest 11.9m APT ($85m) monthly while investors will vest 8.4m APT ($60m) monthly. This accelerated vesting schedule will last for 6 months before tapering down to 11.3m APT monthly.
Potential Trade Idea: Medium term short on APT
When: 12 Nov’23 - 12 Apr'23
What to look out for: FTX Ventures led Aptos' $150m Series A and also participated in the $200m seed round, suggesting a possibility the estate sells its holding on unlocking. As with most shorts, we think pairing with a long leg can help hedge out market risks.
Catalyst #2: Nearcon 2023
Catalyst: Similar to SOL (flagged last week), the historical price action of NEAR suggests a run up into its annual conference before falling. The token has already risen >30% from its lows and we think should continue outperforming into the start of the conference before repeating its historical price action.
Potential Trade Idea: Long NEAR into Nearcon 2023, short NEAR at the start of Nearcon 2023
When: 7 Nov’23
What to look out for: Open Interest has been rising along with funding rate, which implies there is some speculative longs already positioned into the start of the conference.
Catalyst #3: Further FTX estate sales
Catalyst: In the past week, the FTX estate has sent >$100m of tokens to exchanges (which are presumably sold). Top sends include $45m of SOL, $20m of RNDR, $10m of USDC, $10m of MATIC, $9m of ETH and $6m of LINK. We think this is Galaxy (who manages the estate) taking advantage of the high liquidity situation (and alt rally) to liquidate assets.
The SOL amount represents a relatively small proportion (<10%) of the initial amount the FTX estate vested SOL (estimated at ~17m SOL). Despite the large amount of SOL being sent to exchanges, the price of SOL has risen, suggesting the presence of significant demand to absorb the sell pressure.
Potential Trade Idea: Short the remaining top FTX estate holdings (FTX, Alameda) on any evidence that the estate is sending to exchanges (especially if liquidity has pulled back / prices have stagnated).
When: Event driven
What to look out for: As the estate has already shown to have a history of selling into price rallies, windows of price underperformance can be very short.
