Ouroboros Catalysts Issue #3: Upbit conference, Hashflow token unlocks, Butter Finance impact on AURA
We released this article one week prior to Ouroboros Lifetime Access Pass holders.
Last week, we flagged 3 significant upcoming events: 1) Aptos token unlocks, 2) Near’s performance into Nearcon 2023 and 3) FTX estate's selling.
This week, we will be examining the following catalysts:
Upbit Conference 2023 and its price impact on participating projects
Hashflow token unlocks
Butter Finance's impact on AURA
None of the following is financial advice.
Catalyst #1: Upbit Conference 2023
Catalyst: Recent conferences (Solana Breakpoint and Nearcon 2023) have seen their associated outperform into the start dates. Upbit Conference is next week, and we expect similar outperformance.
There has been recent speculation about potential token listings of participants of the upcoming Upbit Conference. In addition to these, we've also seen listing rumours surrounding STG and ZEN. Historically, Upbit token listings have resulted in significant price increases, with tokens trading at a significant premium to other exchanges. Other participants could also potentially see price increases on announcements.
The following table shows the availability of each participant (+STG and ZEN) against KRW and BTC.
Potential Trade Idea: Long a basket of tokens of participants that currently are not listed on Upbit.
When: 13 Nov’23
What to look out for: We recommend closely monitoring the agenda for any potential announcements during the event. Upbit listing plays are highly speculative.
Catalyst #2: Hashflow token unlocks
Catalyst: Roughly 160m HFT ($44m) was unlocked on 7 Nov'23. Roughly 30% is unlocked for Ecosystem Development, 30% for Core Team and 40% for Early Investors. That said, Hashflow had previously raised $25m at a $400m valuation, which is higher than its current FDV of $276m, which could result in team / investors being unwilling to sell at a loss.
Potential Trade Idea: Only 4m HFT (out of 160m unlocked) claimed thus far from the unlocking time and relatively low liquidity on Binance. We recommend monitoring the claim progress closely and longing on low volume of HFT claims and/or shorting if claims rise significantly.
When: 7 Nov’23 - we have passed the unlocking date but claims are ongoing.
What to watch out for: Claim progress of unlocked HFT.
Catalyst #3: Butter Finance's impact on AURA
Catalyst: Butter Finance recently announced its launch. Built by the Aura team, Butter Finance intends to aggregate veCAKE (snapshot vote here). The team has also said in its medium post that Aura holders will receive utility from Butter DAO.
Importantly: Aura DAO stakeholders will gain utility from Butter DAO via multiple streams. More details soon!
- Butter Finance's Medium
We think what is particularly interesting here is the parallels with Velodrome / Aerodrome where 40% of supply of veAERO was airdropped to veVELO holders. VELO had risen ~50% before retracing around 1 month prior the Aerodrome's launch.
Potential Trade Idea: Long AURA.
When: Announcement already made - now.
What to look out for: Watch out for details on how value will be accrued to Aura holders. Exit prior to launch.