Welcome to the weekly Ouroboros Flows and Positioning Chartbook, a weekly compendium dedicated to providing a balanced view of the most noteworthy Flows and Positioning charts. None of the following is financial advice.
Our first issue features 28 charts that, collectively leans us towards a slightly cautious tilt. Consequently, we have moderated our long exposures and bought Put options as a hedge. That said, there are still charts here that suggest the potential for one more leg to this rally (esp in alts). As a result, we maintain a net long position, albeit with caution, rather than a flat or short book.
Global liquidity has been bottoming out, which helped the recent rally in BTC (in addition to the ETF narrative).
In the past year, 20ish days is typically how long it takes for a near-term top after an aggressive up move. Mid-Nov this time perhaps?
Alt coin market cap testing the top end of past 1 year range top. Bearish.
BTC top end of the channel. Tail end of the near-term rally. Bearish.
BTC dominance vs alt coin market cap. There's a tendency in recent times for the market to peak shortly after BTC dominance has peaked. Bearish.
ETHBTC bottom of the range. One of the primary reasons supporting a further rally in alts. Also why we are still slightly long and not flat. Bullish ETH and Alts.
Spec longs have been jumping in but OI still muted. Market is bullish but not euphoric. Bears have been hurt on the move from 28-32K with short liquidations triggered. Less bullish now that shorts are out.
Picture for ETH not great. Spec longs increasing more than BTC % wise yet ETHBTC is still at the bottom of the range. Lack of spot bid for ETH likely due to a lack of catalysts vs BTC (spot ETF). Not bullish ETH.
Alt OI has been surging the past month but partly aided by new Binance listings. All being considered, still suggests a heavy tilt on alt positioning. Bearish Alts.
Past 30D BTC spot flow to exchanges. Not seeing aggressive sending of spot BTC to exchanges. No alarm bells for BTC.
Past 30D ETH spot flow to exchanges. Not seeing aggressive sending of spot ETH to exchanges. No alarm bells for ETH.
Reinforces the BTC spot sell flow picture. Whales are not selling (yet). An indicator to watch closely.
TradFi has been bidding BTC. CME futures OI climbing much more aggressively vs crypto exchanges.
No significant increase in ETH CME OI. Reinforces the view that there's a lack of interest in ETH. TradFi wants to be positioned for BTC but not ETH.
First time in a couple of months that we are seeing a real spot bid in BTC.
Likewise in ETH. While interest in ETH relative to BTC is low, overall there has been a spot bid in crypto. Crypto is indeed seeing real spot flows.
BTC 1M IV - RV spread at +10.45 at the upper end. Options relatively more expensive now.
BTC 25-delta skew at the lows. Options are expensive due to upside speculation. Another early signpost of excessive bullishness.
ETH 1M IV-RV at upper end +11.52. Similar to BTC, options relatively more expensive now.
ETH 25-delta skew at the lows. Similar to ETH, options are expensive due to upside speculation. Again, early signpost of excessive bullishness.
Kingfisher BTC liquidation map. Liquidation cluster is now on the downside. Bearish.
Kingfisher ETH liquidation map. Similar to BTC, liquidation cluster is now on the downside. Bearish.
BTC NUPL. NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. NUPL surpassing levels of prior 2 recent pullbacks. Can be inferred as 1) this rally is driven by a real underlying catalyst (spot ETF) and 2) the rally being due for a pullback.
High level of deployment from stablecoins to risk. Stablecoin market cap as a % of total crypto market cap is at the lows. This tends to herald retracements.
Stablecoin dominance at the lows. Again suggesting capital having been deployed. Less capital on the sidelines.
Stablecoin market cap up $2bn since 2 Oct yet stablecoin dominance at the lows. Capital has been coming into crypto.
Miner net position change = 30D change of the supply held in miner addresses. Miners not selling (yet).
DYDX seeing one of the highest % chg over 7 days (8.2%) despite it also being one of the highest balance base. This 1) suggests perp DEX proliferation and 2) reiterates our point that stablecoins are being deployed to long. Stablecoin balances on exchanges decreasing since July 2023 which is likely attributed to fear of CEX failure.
Thanks for reading Ouroboros’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
