Welcome to the weekly Ouroboros Flows and Positioning Chartbook, a weekly compendium dedicated to providing a balanced view of the most noteworthy Flows and Positioning charts. None of the following is financial advice.
We reaped the rewards of quickly flipping from flat to long last week as we saw alt szn playing out shortly after. Our core longs of FXS and RLB have been doing well as both saw idiosyncratic narratives getting loud. FXS for a potential FraxChain token airdrop and RLB for a potential proposal of revenue being distributed to token holders. We stay long this week but continue to recognize the need to be nimble; evidenced by the flash crash on 11 Dec. To stress this point, we'd like to highlight that despite the 11 Dec being one of the largest long liquidation days over the past year, it did not push funding rates into negative territory. Instead, funding rates were still largely positive, suggesting still heavy speculative positioning and potentially more long liquidations to come before positioning is resetted.
Large liquidation days typically mark "buy-the-dip" events over the past year but those coincided with funding rates going into the negative. Large liquidations without negative funding have led to bigger flushes down the line.
Global liquidity continues to tick up, supportive of crypto's current upward move.
Alts still testing the post-LUNA bounce resistance. Needs to firmly break above to cement alt szn.
As we've pointed out, the new highs in BTC.D ushered in alt szn.
ETH continues to trade weak; rejected off the top of its range despite BTC making new highs.
$1.5bn of Alts OI got rinsed during the flash crash but OI quickly recovered thereafter.
BTC spot sends into exchanges grows more prominent.
Quiet in ETH.
CME BTC OI dipped almost 20% but still elevated. Annualized basis remains high as well.
TradFi seems uninterested in ETH. Explains ETH's sluggish price action.
IV-RV remains expensive but more towards the buying of protection recently (skew up).
Similar picture in ETH.
Kingfisher BTC liquidation map. Liquidation cluster on the upside at $43400 levels.
Kingfisher ETH liquidation map. Liquidation cluster is on both the upside and downside at $2340 and $2090 levels.
Stablecoins continue to be deployed with more capital coming into crypto (increasing stablecoin market cap). Its risk-on!
Miners continue to sell. Miner sell flow still unfelt by the market due to the spot bid compensating.
Dune, TON Labs, Aura and Drift has the most increase in 1 month weekly commits.
