Welcome to the weekly Ouroboros Flows and Positioning Chartbook, a weekly compendium dedicated to providing a balanced view of the most noteworthy Flows and Positioning charts. None of the following is financial advice.
We continue to stay cautious at these levels. The inability of Saylor's bid and Binance's DOJ clearance to drive the market firmly to new highs suggests a diminishing impact of such catalysts, warranting caution. Additionally, on-chain data suggests that miners continue to sell into these levels. Our observation of CVDs and volumes further reinforces this; a view that there is a large size limit seller above $38K.
Incremental observations this week:
Liquidity - Both stablecoin market cap and global liquidity continues to tick up.
OI and Funding - Alt casino is back. Alts OI approaching prior highs. - BTC OI is increasing with a positive uptick in funding, upside speculation is creeping back in BTC.
Flows - BTC miners turn heavier sellers
BTC miners continue to sell more.
Global liquidity seemed to have bottomed and continues to tick up, supportive of our longer term bullish view on crypto.
Total crypto market cap at post LUNA highs and the upper end of its channel. Cautious.
Alt coin market cap at a level where prior retracements happened. Cautious.
BTC at upper end of its channel. Cautious.
There is a tendency in recent times for the market to peak shortly after BTC.D has peaked.
ETHBTC continues to trade heavy despite participants positioning for an ETH ETF. We are of the view that positioning in ETH is already heavy and hence weighing down the price action.
BTC OI pushing new highs while funding ticks up - speculation is back.
Alts OI almost back to previous levels.
Exchange flows for BTC and ETH quiet.
TradFi continues to bid BTC. BTC CME basis is at the top end of its range.
TradFi also bidding ETH despite the price action of ETHBTC not seeming to suggest so. ETH CME OI and basis at a YTD high.
Speculation of BTC upside through options continues to be rife. IV-RV spread for BTC continues to be on the high side with Calls significantly more expensive than Puts.
Unlike BTC, ETH IV is more in-line to its RV. However, similar to BTC, Puts are significantly cheaper vs Calls.
Kingfisher BTC liquidation map. Liquidation cluster is now further on the downside around 27k, no immediate near-term liquidation concerns. There is also a liquidation cluster around 37800 on the upside for the first time in a few weeks.
Most of ETH liquidation clusters to the upside.
NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in spot coins represented as a ratio. ETH and BTC NUPL are either approaching or higher than post-LUNA highs.
High level of deployment from stablecoins to risk. Stablecoin market cap as a % of total crypto market cap is at the lows. This tends to herald retracements.
