Ouroboros Catalysts Issue #5: GameFi Season, AEVO TGE / RBN Conversion
We first released this article on 30 Nov'23 to Ouroboros Lifetime Access Pass holders who get early access to our writing.
Last issue, we flagged 2 catalysts: 1) Blur Season 2 end and unlocks, 2) CoW Swap fee switch.
Blur announced it was launching a L2 (BLAST) and introduced token sinks to defray unlock sellers, resulting in BLUR rising >50%. CoW Swap has also performed well as intents gain attention.
This week, we will be examining the following catalysts:
The flurry of GameFi announcements in Nov'23 - Dec'23
Ribbon Finance's tokenomics revamp. converting its token from RBN to AEVO
None of the following is financial advice.
Catalyst #1: GameFi Season
Catalyst(s): Nov'23 to Dec'23 feature several GameFi catalysts which we think are worth watching including:
Aurory's Seekers of Tokane which had its alpha release on 16 Nov'23, Epic Games Store launch in Q1'24
(Not strictly GameFi) Rollbit's Duel Arena launch on 25 Nov'23 which features 0% edge and allows users to wager crypto, NFTs and RLB.
Illuvium's Beta 3: PVP launch on 28 Nov'23 on Epic Games Store
STEPN's Gas Hero undergoing community testing from 27 Nov'23 to 11 Dec'23
Source: Twitter / X
Separately, Rockstar Games has confirmed that GTA VI's first trailer will be released in early Dec'23. The game has been rumoured to feature crypto which we think will reprice the entire GameFi sector upward if true.
Potential trade ideas:
Long GameFi names into GTA VI's trailer release, cut if trailer does not mention crypto.
Track active users on games which have games released, long if traction is good. We think most crypto GameFi projects will not find traction and prefer to build conviction / positions when metrics are trending well.
When: Dec’23
What to watch out for: Traction of games and GTA VI trailer
Catalyst #2: RBN / AEVO conversion
Catalyst: Ribbon Finance is slated to convert its RBN token to AEVO in Jan'24. Key details of the conversion / TGE include:
Conversion to sAEVO: The conversion will be at a 1:1 exchange rate to sAEVO (staked AEVO) which will be locked for 3 months
Tokenomics: All allocations will remain the same and major investors and team members will have to re-vest locked tokens for a year
veRBN holders will be able to unlock tokens at no penalty. Roughly 1.6% of fully diluted tokens are locked at the moment, suggesting sell pressure will likely be muted
Use of treasury: The DAO treasury current holds around 45% of RBN.
16%/45% of the new AEVO token from the treasury will be used as incentives (this includes an airdrop)
9%/45% will be used for token liquidity on DEXs and CEXs
5%/45% will be used for community growth and bounties
16%/45% are currently not earmarked (2% team annual allocation comes from here)
Potential trade idea: Long RBN into the conversion. The conversion of RBN into sAEVO will mean a substantial portion of the liquid supply of AEVO will be locked up for 3 months with the only liquid components coming from airdrop recipients and liquidity pools. We think this will result in a high MCap given the low float and result in RBN being repriced upwards.
When: Jan'24
What to watch out for: RBN conversion ratio, airdrop distribution
Prior Issues
[15 Nov'23] Issue #4: End of Blur season 2, CoW Swap fee switch (Link)
[8 Nov'23] Issue #3: Upbit conference, Hashflow token unlocks, Butter Finance impact on AURA (Link)
[31 Oct'23] Issue #2: Aptos unlocks $177m monthly, Nearcon 2023, FTX estate sales (Link)
[23 Oct'23] Issue #1: Solana Breakpoint, Lido sunsets Solana staking, Polkadot crowdloan unlocks (Link)